PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN DAN PRODUKSI PRODUK KESEHATAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE FUZZY ECONOMIC PRODUCTION QUANTITY (STUDI KASUS: UMKM ALHAMI KIMIA SHOP)

Abstract

The condition of Covid-19 distribution in Indonesia in 2023 has decreased. This affects people's interest in buying household health supplies (PKRT) products such as disinfectants and hand sanitizers. The impact is felt by Alhami Kimia Shop Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (MSME), which is the object of this research. MSME Alhami Kimia Shop is an MSME that produces a group of liquid household health supplies (PKRT) products developed for needs during the Covid-19 pandemic. This research focuses on the PKRT product group consisting of disinfectants and hand sanitizers. From January 2021 to July 2023, Alhami Kimia Shop produces 800 PKRT health items per month to be marketed. However, during the Covid-19 endemic, the number of requests is not as much as during the Covid-19 pandemic which occurred in 2020. The better the condition of the spread of Covid-19, the less the need for PKRT products in the market. So, the Fuzzy Economic Production Quantity (EPQ) method is used to find out the new production policy by considering the flexibility and reliability of the production process and the unit production cost that adjusts to the amount of demand. It can be called Fuzzy EPQ because the amount of demand and production set-up costs are always changing. Previously, to know the amount of demand that will come, it is necessary to forecast demand for the next 12 months. The forecasting methods compared in this study are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Box-Jenkins (ARIMA Box-Jenkins) and Holt's Winters. The results of forecasting the demand for PKRT products for the next 12 months are 7,405 products, which is the result of forecasting using the Holt's Winters method with α 0.4 β 0.3 and γ 0.2. This method obtained the smallest MAPE compared to other forecasting models, which was 4.03%. Then, using the Fuzzy EPQ method results in a production lot number (Q*) of 477 products with a total production in a year of 14 times. It means, fulfill a year's demand of 7,405 products, they need to make production of 477 products per one production. The results of the Q comparison in the existing condition processing obtained a value of 896 production lot units, which is greater than in the processing with Fuzzy EPQ. It can be concluded that the calculation results of the recommendation method are better than the existing conditions.