ANALISIS PERAMALAN PENYEWAAN CONTAINER PIHAK KE-3 MENGGUNAKAN METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN TIME SERIES DECOMPOSITION (STUDI KASUS: SARANA BANDAR NASIONAL TANJUNG PRIOK)

Abstract

PT Sarana Bandar Nasional (SBN) or known as Pelni Logistik is a subsidiary of PT Pelni. PT SBN operates in the stevedoring, receiver/delivery and cargodoring sectors which has been established for 37 years now. The increasing number of developments in the transportation of goods and services via sea transportation must be in line with the increase in loading and unloading activities at ports and the adequacy of existing resource plans. The availability of containers is one of the keys to the success of a shipment. Without the availability of containers capable of sending using sea transportation, it will be messy or cancelled. because considering the risk of damage and loss of shipments without the use of containers. Therefore, the aim of this research is to analyze the best model to predict PT SBN's 3rd party container rental demand by comparing the Exponential Smoothing Holt Winters method and Time Series Decomposition. The data used to forecast in this research is historical data on PT SBN container rentals for the last 20 periods. The forecasting is done to find the number of rentals that SBN might carry out for the next 4 periods. After carrying out approximate calculations using these two methods, the smallest error value (MAPE) was obtained in the calculation using the time series decomposition method, namely 0.02, while the error value obtained using the Holt Winters exponential smoothing method was 0.7. So the best model in this research is to apply forecasting using the time series decomposition method.