PENILAIAN RISIKO DALAM KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL KAPAL MILIK MENGGUNAKAN METODE SIMULASI MONTE CARLO

Abstract

Investment in new shipbuilding is undertaken either to replace fleets approaching the end of their economic life or to fulfill market demand by expanding the fleet. The decision-making process is guided by a project financial feasibility study, which highlights the importance of risk analysis and cash flow uncertainty. Risk analysis is carried out to identify and understand the potential risks faced by the company as a shipowner, while the aspect of uncertainty pertains to the unpredictability of cash flow projections. As part of the project's financial feasibility assessment, risk analysis plays a crucial role. Given that financial projections may not align with actual outcomes, it is essential for companies to incorporate the inherent uncertainty into their evaluations. Therefore, to better approximate real-world conditions, projected cash flows must be converted into more reliable values using a probabilistic approach that considers various project financing and payment scenarios. Each scenario is then simulated using Monte Carlo Simulation to evaluate its impact on financial projections. This study aims to demonstrate the risk level associated with each risk event based on its probability and financial impact as recorded in the risk register. It also analyzes a comparison of owned vessel investment scenarios using Monte Carlo Simulation and examines the correlation. This study shows that Risk Event (R6) has the greatest influence, the investment scenario of private funds and bank loans (100:0) was selected, and administrative costs have the greatest impact on financial feasibility.