Dampak Kebijakan Tarif Impor Amerika Serikat Era Trump 2.0 Terhadap Makroekonomi Anggota BRICS: Analisis Model GTAP

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of United States import tariff policies during the Trump Administration’s second term, along with retaliatory measures implemented by BRICS countries. The analysis employs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Database version 11 to evaluate the effects of tariff policies on economic welfare, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), trade balance, investment, inflation, terms of trade (ToT), as well as export and import performance in the United States and BRICS countries. Simulation results indicate that import tariffs and trade retaliation generally reduce economic welfare and real GDP in the United States and most BRICS economies. The United States experiences a decline in real GDP of approximately 0.47%, an improvement in the trade balance of USD 75.37 billion, a reduction in investment of 2.80%, and an increase in inflation of 3.16%. BRICS countries such as China, India, and Brazil also suffer declines in real GDP, economic welfare, and trade performance, although the magnitude of these effects is relatively smaller. Although some countries gain limited benefits through trade diversion mechanisms, these positive effects are insufficient to offset the overall economic losses. Overall, the findings suggest that the escalation of import tariffs and retaliatory trade policies exacerbates macroeconomic performance and undermines the efficiency of international trade, highlighting the importance of more cooperative trade policies oriented toward global economic stability.