PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN JASA EKSPOR OCEAN SHIPMENT DENGAN METODE DEKOMPOSISI DAN WINTERS’ (STUDI KASUS: DB SCHENKER SURABAYA)

Abstract

Demand forecasting system is a process for making optimal decisions through prediction of future conditions. This study aims to determine the best forecasting method that can be used by DB Schenker Surabaya. The benefits of this study are as an information material to plan DB Schenker Surabaya's business activities in the field of logistics services so that all demands for services especially in the ocean shipment export section can be well prepared in the future and can be used as a reference for further research. Demand forecasting is done by comparing two methods of time series forecasting, consisting of decomposition and winters’ (triple exponential smoothing) methods which are processed using Ms. Excel and Minitab software. Historical data used are monthly data for 2015-2017 to predict the number of demands in 2018. The results of this study indicate that the best demand forecasting method is using the winters’ method.