Hubungan Nilai Tukar, Kapasitas Kilang, Konsumsi, dan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Minyak Bumi terhadap Impor Minyak Bumi Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to observe a relationship between exchange rate, refinery capacity, consumption, petroleum power generation, and Indonesia's crude oil imports. The data used are from British Petroleum and CEIC annually from 1989 to 2019. This study uses the Vector Autoregressive/Vector Error Correction Model (VAR/VECM) method. Some of the tests carried out in this study are stationary test, determination of optimal lag, cointegration test, VAR/VECM, Granger Causality test, Lagrange-Multiplier test (LM test), Stability test, Skewness-Kurtosis test (SK test), Impulse Response Function (IRF), Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD), and trend forecasting. The results shows that all the variables are stationary at the first difference. The optimal lag result is at lag-1, and the cointegration test shows that there is no cointegration between exchange rate, refinery capacity, consumption, petroleum power generation and crude oil import. This study uses VAR first difference. The result of Granger Causality test shows that the variables have a relationship with crude oil import except the exchange rate. LM test shows there was no autocorrelation among all variables. The result of stability test shows that the VAR first difference model is stable and the residuals are normally distributed in the SK test. IRF and FEVD shows that each variable responds the shocks fluctuatively, and contributes to the changes of the oil import. The forecasting of each variable reavels a fluctuative change towards 2030.