PENERAPAN METODE PERAMALAN KEBUTUHAN SOLVENT NORMAL HEXANE (STUDY CASE PT KILANG PERTAMINA INTERNATIONAL RU III)

Abstract

In a company, forecasting activities become one of the bases for making strategic decisions for business continuity, whether forecasting demand or forecasting production. The success reflected in the forecasting activity is that sales and profits follow the expected targets and can avoid unwanted risks. PT Refinery Pertamina International is one of the companies whose line of business is engaged in oil and gas processing which in its production activities requires supporting materials and chemicals. Research in the procurement department forecasts the chemical solvent required for normal hexane as a solvent used in oil extraction. The chosen forecasting method with the smallest SEE value is the cyclical method of 22644.80, the second is the linear method of 22821.19, the third is the exponential method of 23178.55, and the method that has the largest error value is the quadratic method of 23863.54. Thus, forecasting for the next 12 periods is carried out using the cyclical method with a total demand of 556991 L.