Pemodelan System Dynamics Untuk Analisis Dinamika Produksi, Konsumsi Dan Cadangan Minyak

Abstract

Ahmad Sofyan Sauri. 101316096. System dynamics modelling for analysis of Indonesia oil production, consumption and reserves. This research is about Indonesia oil reserves prediction using system dynamics modelling. Reserves prediction is perform by identifying variables that affect oil reserves such as production, current reserves, additional exploration reserves and POFD (Plan of Further Development). The reserve prediction model is consist of BAU (Business As Usual) scenario, Low Intervention, Base Intervention and High Intervention scenario that influenced by possibility of execution and the results in adding reserves coming from new exploration, POFD and EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery). The system dynamics model can predict the future of production, oil import portion, RRR and future R / P future profile. The Business As Usual (BAU) simulation results suggest that Indonesia's oil reserves in 2012 reached 3.7 billion bbl and only will be 0.9 billion bbl remaining in 2041. To increase oil reserves, the government must intervene in policies so that it will attract the oil industry to increase exploration reserves, implement POFD and execute EOR. The simulation results for the intervention scenario based on policy improvements for low, base and high impact scenario show that the Indonesia's oil reserves in 2041 will be 1.6 billion, 2.5 billion, 2.5 billion, 11 billion respectively. Keywords: Reserves prediction; system dynamics, BAU, intervention scenarios.