| dc.description.abstract | Aulia Ahdina. 103116088. Prediction of Changes in Cash Conversion Cycle Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Company Profit
Basically every manufacturing company always follows the working capital cycle through the activities of buying or producing inventory, holding it for a while, then selling inventory and then receiving cash or cash back. Working capital management which is described through the cash conversion cycle is one of the factors in the company's profit movement. To calculate the cash conversion cycle projection in its effect on corporate profits in the future, Monte Carlo simulations can be used. This study aims to determine the cash conversion cycle projection of PT Kimia Farma (Persero) Tbk. and its influence on the increase or decrease in working capital and company profits based on Monte Carlo simulations using Microsoft Excel and Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) software.
Monte Carlo simulation is used in projection analysis in the average, best and worst conditions in the future. The longer the number of days needed in the cash conversion cycle, the lower the profit of the company because the company takes longer to receive cash or cash back and will need additional working capital to cover the cash used for the company's operations. Assuming bank loans and interest payments in the final year (2018) are considered constant, the calculation of projections for average conditions results in the number of days in the cash conversion cycle of 43.65 days and generates a profit before tax of Rp 674,529,653,047, in the best condition yielding the number of days in the cash conversion cycle for -27302.47 days and generate profit before tax of Rp 690.168.017.567, while in the worst conditions produce the number of days in the cash conversion cycle for 2789.92 days and generate a profit of - Rp 9,657,747,663,323 . As for the significance level of 5%, 1%, and 10% resulted in the number of days in the cash conversion cycle for 1647.19 days, 2327.48 days and 1307.05 days which resulted in a profit before tax of - Rp 5.358.452.680.250, - IDR 7,917,899,730,740, and - IDR 4,078,729,155,005.
Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, Cash Conversion Cycle Projection, Working Capital, Profit Before Tax | en_US |
