ANALYSIS OF BREAKTHROUGH TIME AND ESTIMATED LIQUID PRODUCTION RATE IN THE JPS FIELD

Abstract

Water coning presents a significant challenge in optimizing oil production, leading to premature water breakthrough and reduced recovery. This study aims to analyze breakthrough time and forecast liquid production in the JPS Field, which has both vertical JPS-03 dan JPS-04, by evaluating various analytical correlations. The research utilized analytical methods to predict water breakthrough time; Sobocinski and Corneleus, as well as Bournazel and Jeanson correlations were used for the vertical wells. Subsequently, production history matching and three-scenario forecasting were performed. The results show a significant variance in breakthrough time predictions. For vertical wells, the Bournazel and Jeanson correlation predicted earlier breakthroughs (188.9 and 198.1 days) compared to Sobocinski and Corneleus (361.9 and 347.0 days). The mean absolute persencatge error from sensitivity parameter for water cut is 73%. The water cut after forecasting are 0.976 and 0.874, with oil rate 18 bbl/d and 461 bbl/d. This study concludes that while history matching can align oil rates, accurately predicting the initial water breakthrough remains a challenge. The JPS-04 well shows the best long-term potential.