PREDIKSI PERILAKU PRODUKSI DENGAN ANALISIS DECLINE CURVE DAN ANALISIS EKONOMI PSC COST RECOVERY PADA LAPANGAN HOMBING

Abstract

Petroleum industry is a capital-intensive and profit-oriented industry. A future field development plan not only focus on obtaining the highest recovery factor, but also requires economic analysis. This research predicts production performance in the Hombing Field by using Decline Curve Analysis (DCA), then from the forecast data, the profitability of the field will be assessed by the PSC Cost Recovery analysis. The Hombing Field is estimated to have an Original Oil in Place (OOIP) of 84.31 MMBO, while gas reserves are estimated at 20.85 BSCF. The Hombing Field began production in January 2010 with the first oil production rate of 1.948 BOPD. From the forecast results, the field is predicted to produce an EUR of 12.65 MMBBL, ERR of 2.55 MMBBL, and RF of 15.05%. Until the end of the project period, Hombing Field generated NPV of MMUSD 82.27, IRR of 32,862%, PBP of 3.24 years, and DPI of 2.43. This study also analyzes the sensitivity of field economic parameters to project feasibility.