PERAMALAN KEBUTUHAN PENGIRIMAN PETI KEMAS UNTUK MEMINIMASI LOST SALE (STUDI KASUS: PT CRIETA LOGISTICS)

Abstract

PT Crieta Logistics is a 3rd party logistics company engaged in shipping goods by sea using containers. In carrying out its business, the company often experiences lost sales every month, which is caused by the unavailability of containers for use in shipping so that the company cannot serve orders received. As in January to July 2022, PT Crieta Logistics experienced lost sales of 21, 9, 12, 34, 19, 4 and 2 TEUs respectively. This is caused by the company's lack of planning regarding the availability of containers to fulfil shipping requests. Therefore, in this study forecasting the number of requests for containers at PT Crieta Logistics aims to assist companies in making decisions on planning for container supply in the coming period. This forecasting more specifically functions as a basic input that can be used by companies to make decisions regarding container availability, such as whether to contract with vendors so that the number of containers available at PT Crieta Logistics can be adjusted to shipping needs, or not to contract with vendors and only place orders for containers when an order is received. Forecasting is done using 3 time series methods, namely linear, quadratic, and exponential regression. Prior to forecasting using these three methods, historical data collection on container demand was carried out for 2 years from July 2020 to July 2022, which was used as processing input. In the early stages, an analysis of the pattern of container demand data was carried out, it was found that the container demand data has a trend that tends to increase each period. In determining the most accurate forecasting method, the error value is calculated using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In the linear regression method, the MAPE value is 9.5%, while in the quadratic method it is known that the MAPE value is 9%, and in the exponential method the MAPE value is 9.2%. Based on the MAPE value, the quadratic method was chosen as the method used in forecasting the next 12 periods because it has the smallest MAPE value. Demand forecasting using the quadratic method produces 12,631 units (TEU) of containers for the next 12 periods, from August 2022 – July 2023.