| dc.description.abstract | PT Crieta Logistics is a 3rd party logistics company engaged in shipping goods by sea using
containers. In carrying out its business, the company often experiences lost sales every
month, which is caused by the unavailability of containers for use in shipping so that the
company cannot serve orders received. As in January to July 2022, PT Crieta Logistics
experienced lost sales of 21, 9, 12, 34, 19, 4 and 2 TEUs respectively. This is caused by the
company's lack of planning regarding the availability of containers to fulfil shipping
requests. Therefore, in this study forecasting the number of requests for containers at PT
Crieta Logistics aims to assist companies in making decisions on planning for container
supply in the coming period. This forecasting more specifically functions as a basic input
that can be used by companies to make decisions regarding container availability, such as
whether to contract with vendors so that the number of containers available at PT Crieta
Logistics can be adjusted to shipping needs, or not to contract with vendors and only place
orders for containers when an order is received. Forecasting is done using 3 time series
methods, namely linear, quadratic, and exponential regression. Prior to forecasting using
these three methods, historical data collection on container demand was carried out for 2
years from July 2020 to July 2022, which was used as processing input. In the early stages,
an analysis of the pattern of container demand data was carried out, it was found that the
container demand data has a trend that tends to increase each period. In determining the
most accurate forecasting method, the error value is calculated using the mean absolute
percentage error (MAPE). In the linear regression method, the MAPE value is 9.5%, while
in the quadratic method it is known that the MAPE value is 9%, and in the exponential
method the MAPE value is 9.2%. Based on the MAPE value, the quadratic method was
chosen as the method used in forecasting the next 12 periods because it has the smallest
MAPE value. Demand forecasting using the quadratic method produces 12,631 units (TEU)
of containers for the next 12 periods, from August 2022 – July 2023. | en_US |
